Cattle herd recovery delayed to 2025

By Andi Anderson

The rebuilding of the U.S. beef cattle herd remains on hold as market conditions and lingering effects of recent droughts continue to challenge cattle producers.

In the two to three years leading up to 2024, severe drought conditions across major cattle-producing regions forced a significant contraction in the beef cattle herd. As a result, overall beef cattle numbers in the country remain historically low, with little sign of a turnaround in the near future.

Earlier in 2024, some market analysts and industry experts expressed hope that herd rebuilding might begin in the last quarter of the year. However, as the year progresses, it has become evident that this process has not yet started.

According to Jacob Burks, a market analyst with AgMarket.net, cattle producers have yet to initiate the herd rebuilding phase. He shared his insights with the Iowa Agribusiness Radio Network, noting that the current market conditions are a significant factor in the delay.

Burks explained that several indicators will signal the start of herd rebuilding, one of the most important being the retention of heifers by cattle producers.

Heifers are young female cattle that have not yet calved, and retaining them rather than selling them off is a key step in expanding the herd. However, Burks suggests that this retention may not occur until 2025, as producers carefully assess market conditions before making such a commitment.

The decision to rebuild the herd is not taken lightly, as it involves significant financial investment and long-term planning. Producers must weigh the costs of retaining and raising additional cattle against the potential market returns.

With the current challenges in the market, many are adopting a cautious approach, waiting for more favorable conditions before moving forward with herd expansion.

As 2024 continues, the outlook for herd rebuilding remains uncertain. While there is hope that the process will begin in 2025, much will depend on how market conditions evolve.

Until then, the U.S. beef cattle herd is likely to remain at historically low levels, impacting beef production and prices across the industry.

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