By Jamie Martin
Farmers are harvesting record crops in 2025, with corn output projected at 16.7 billion bushels and near-record soybean yields. However, these achievements are clouded by steep trade disruptions.
The United States, which held an agricultural trade surplus for nearly 60 years, recorded a deficit of $29 billion in the first half of 2025. Exports to China have collapsed, falling by more than half compared to last year. Soybean sales stand at a 20-year low, with China delaying purchases later than at any point since 2005.
Meanwhile, livestock markets are shifting. Beef output is forecast to drop by 4% and pork production is also set to decline, signaling possible price increases at grocery stores.
Rural America remains central to the nation, with 68.4 million residents—20% of the population—living on 97% of the land. SNAP food assistance supports about 11 million rural people, highlighting continued need in farming communities.
Tariffs have also intensified farm struggles. With input costs soaring and equipment prices rising, grain producers are facing negative returns. The average tariff rate now sits at 15.2%, the highest since World War II.
Professor Gary Schnitkey of the University of Illinois has warned that farmers may need to withstand low profits for the next four to five years. Programs like the One Big Beautiful Bill may help, but uncertainty remains high.
"The farmer has to be an optimist or he wouldn’t still be a farmer," said Will Rogers.
Photo Credit: istock-fangxianuo
Categories: National