By Andi Anderson
At the 40th annual Northwest Iowa Ag Outlook, economist Ernie Goss provided insights on how tariffs and economic shifts could impact U.S. agriculture.
Goss, a professor at Creighton University, explained that while the current agricultural outlook is positive, tariffs and global trade decisions could alter the economic landscape.
Goss emphasized that tariffs, particularly those on China, could lead to retaliation, affecting both agriculture and manufacturing. He also pointed out that the U.S. deficit is approaching $37 trillion, creating financial strain. Unlike previous tariff disputes, Goss noted that the government currently lacks funds to cushion farmers from economic losses.
Discussing economic trends, Goss stated that the U.S. stock market is at record highs, making investments riskier. He advised caution when investing in corporate bonds and suggested watching the ten-year U.S. Treasury yield, which impacts mortgage rates and overall economic health.
For farmers, international trade remains a key concern. Goss highlighted that nearly 47% of U.S. exports go to Mexico, and Iowa’s agricultural exports to Mexico are even higher.
If Mexico’s new president, Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo, enforces retaliatory tariffs, grain markets could suffer. However, he predicted grain prices in 2025 will improve over the past two years, as long as major trade disruptions are avoided.
Goss also addressed livestock markets, stating that pork prices will remain stable, while beef prices have peaked. He advised farmers to monitor key economic indicators, including the Federal Open Market Committee meetings, employment reports, and BRICS summits, which could influence future trade and interest rates.
Despite uncertainties, Goss remained cautiously optimistic about agriculture’s future. He concluded with a light-hearted remark, saying, "We are the healthiest patient in the ER or the cleanest shirt in the dirty laundry."
Photo Credit: istock-dusanpetkovic
Categories: Iowa, General