The USDA August Crop Production report utilized a survey from 15,000 producers to estimate yield and production. The survey results, as of Aug. 1, pegged U.S. corn yield at a slightly lower-than-expected 175.1 bushels per acre (bpa). That is down 2.4 bpa from July and about 0.3 bpa below where Dow Jones traders had estimated. Corn production came in 209 million bushels (mb) below the July estimate, at 15.111 billion bushels (bb). Harvested acres remained unchanged at 86.3 million. To begin, USDA had lowered 2022-23 exports by 50 mb and raised imports by 5 mb, leading to a 55 mb higher carry-in. The exports for 2023-24 were also cut by 50 mb, leading to an ending stocks number of 2.202 bb -- down 60 mb from July, and 23 mb higher than Dow Jones survey respondents had expected. Feed and residual use was dropped by 25 mb due to the lower crop size. Corn yields in Indiana, Iowa, Nebraska, Ohio, and South Dakota were higher than last year, while yields in Illinois, Minnesota and Missouri fell.
On the world front, WASDE raised the Brazilian corn crop by 2 million metric tons (mmt) to 135 mmt (5.31 bb), raised Ukraine by 2 mmt to 27.5 mmt (1.08 bb), while lowering both EU production by 3.7 mmt to 59.7 mmt (2.35 bb) and Russian corn production by 1.7 mmt to 14.6 mmt (575 bb). On feed usage, Russia was cut by over 1 mmt, Egypt by 1 mmt and the EU by just over 2 mmt. The net effect of the world changes was to lower world ending corn stocks by a greater-than-expected 3.1 mmt to 311 mmt (12.2 bb) compared to July and to the Dow Jones estimate.
While the report was mostly as expected, or even slightly more bullish than traders had expected, corn futures fell into the close, likely on the idea that the September WASDE could reflect improving yields due to August rains. December corn finished 9 cents lower at $4.87 1/4.
SOYBEANS:
As in corn, the soybean data reflected a neutral to even slightly bullish result. Soybean production was pegged at a lower-than-expected 4.21 bb with a yield of 50.9 bpa that was down 1.1 bpa compared to July, and even 0.3 bpa under the Dow Jones trade estimate. Soybeans came into the report with a higher carry-in due to a 5 mb higher import number. With the same harvested acres of 82.7 million acres, new-crop ending stocks were lowered by a more-than-expected 55 mb -- from 300 mb in July to 245 mb Friday. New-crop changes were an increase in imports of 10 mb and a drop in exports of 25 mb to 1.825 bb to account for the smaller crop. The average farm price for beans was ratcheted higher by 30 cents to $12.70 per bushel. The average price for soymeal rose by $5 to $380 metric ton (mt) and for bean oil, up 2 cents to 62 cents.
Source: iowacorn.org
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Categories: Iowa, Business, Crops, Corn, Soybeans