By Andi Anderson
The weather outside might have been frightfully dry most of the summer, but the crop, pastures and people endured. When DTN's View From the Cab farmers look back on the 2023 season, the one word that stands out is resiliency.
"I sound like a broken record, but I can't believe how well things turned out here given the drought conditions we faced most of the summer," said Zachary (Zach) Grossman, of Tina, Missouri. "I realize not all farmers and ranchers were as lucky -- even in my own state of Missouri. But if you'd told me what our rainfall would have been like throughout this season, I never would have guessed our yields could have been at or slightly better than farm APH (actual production history)."
The sentiment is much the same in southeastern North Dakota for Chandra and Mike Langseth, who farm near Barney. There was much to be thankful for when the couple hosted a large family Thanksgiving feast at the farm home last week. Yields in their acres also met or slightly exceeded yield goals.
"Overall, it turned out to be a pretty good year," said Chandra. She pointed to a bounty of reasons for those results: irrigation on sandy acres; the water holding capacity of dryland soils; tile drainage; limited stress on the crop due to lack of pests and disease; and moderate temperatures.
But whew ... uncertain weather is still on the radar for these farmers, who have been reporting in each week as part of DTN's View From the Cab project. The counties where Grossman farms remain listed in D1 (moderate drought) on the most recent U.S. Drought Monitor. The same map lists Richland County, where the Langseths farm, as mostly D0 (abnormally dry).
DTN Ag Meteorologist John Baranick said El Nino will be in control of what happens this winter but will be waning in the spring. "Through the winter, that favors a split jet stream across North America. That favors the northern jet up in northwestern Canada and then swooping through eastern Canada. That usually keeps the northern tier of the country warmer than normal. The southern jet moves along the southern end of the country, favoring an active storm track for those from California through the Southeast, and sometimes up the East Coast," Baranick noted.
"That doesn't mean that warm and dry conditions are favored all winter long, but the threat for cold shots is lower and less intense than normal and precipitation is somewhat below normal as well. That's a little muddied in both North Dakota and northern Missouri, but there is a signal of reduced precipitation."
In the spring, El Nino's influence starts to fall away, and the pattern is a little more difficult to get a hold on, he added. "The DTN forecast does hold the typical El Nino temperature pattern through the spring, but with lower confidence later in the season. The precipitation forecast is also much more variable across much of the country, again especially later in the season. All-in-all, a typical El Nino winter is forecast, but confidence quickly drops off as El Nino fades into the middle of next year," he said.
Photo Credit: istock-fotokostic
Categories: Iowa, Crops