With summer flying by, the August World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) and accompanying Crop Production reports are almost here, set for release at 11 a.m. CDT Friday, Aug. 11. For corn and soybeans, the August WASDE report is known as the first report that USDA takes a semiserious crack at yield estimates, helped by a survey of over 15,000 producers in late July and early August. Field data won't be used until September, but this report will give upcoming crop tours both a guide and a mark to compare to.
CORN
Just a month ago, USDA lowered the corn yield estimate from 181.5 bushels per acre to 177.5 bushels per acre, "lowered to reflect extreme dryness in June." At the time, the yield estimate still looked high, while young corn leaves were rolled up in dry fields. Now, it looks like USDA's patience was the right approach. On Monday, Aug. 7, DTN's Digital Yield Tour with Gro Intelligence estimated a national corn yield of 177.0 bushels per acre, very close to USDA's July estimate. Extensive data from Gro shows a remarkable rebound in crop conditions, thanks to rains and milder temperatures in July and early August.
For Friday, Dow Jones' survey of 18 analysts expects USDA to lower the U.S. crop estimate from 15.320 billion bushels (bb) to 15.126 bb, based on a lower yield of 175.4 bushels per acre. If we're tempted to argue about small differences, this isn't the time. Based on 41 years of estimating U.S. corn production, the 90% confidence interval for USDA's August estimates are a wide plus or minus 10.9%. The crop isn't done developing yet, and making big estimates on a limited sample of fallible assessments has its shortcomings. It would be interesting if USDA would be more transparent about the survey responses they do receive, but as it is, traders are left to trust a complicated, bureaucratic process.
Source: iowacorn.org
Photo Credit: gettyimages-fstop123
Categories: Iowa, Government & Policy