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State Hay Production Forecast Up from 2018
Iowa Ag Connection - 08/13/2019

Iowa corn production is forecast at 2.52 billion bushels, according to the latest USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service -- Crop Production report. Based on conditions as of Aug. 1, yields are expected to average 191.0 bushels per acre, down 5.0 bushels from last year. Corn planted acreage is estimated at 13.6 million acres. An estimated 13.2 million of the acres planted will be harvested for grain.

Soybean production is forecast at 502 million bushels. The yield is forecast at 55.0 bushels per acre, 2.0 bushels lower than 2018. Soybean planted acreage is estimated at 9.20 million acres with 9.13 million acres to be harvested.

Oat production for grain is forecast at 5.20 million bushels. The expected yield is 65.0 bushels per acre, up 2.0 bushels from the July forecast and from 2018. An estimated 80,000 acres will be harvested for grain.

Iowa hay yield for alfalfa and alfalfa mixtures is expected to be 3.30 tons per acre with a total production of 2.31 million tons, up 1 percent from the previous year. The projected yield for other hay is 2.40 tons per acre, with production at 912,000 tons, up 30 percent from 2018.

The forecasts in this report are based on Aug. 1 conditions and do not reflect weather effects since that time. The next corn and soybean production forecasts, based on conditions as of Sept. 1, will be released on Sept. 12.

Survey respondents who reported acreage as not yet planted for corn, cotton, sorghum, and soybeans in fourteen States for the Acreage report, released June 28, 2019, were re-contacted in July. Excessive rainfall had led to planting delays and challenges at the time of the survey, leaving a portion of acres still to be planted for corn in Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, New York, North Dakota, Ohio, South Dakota, and Wisconsin; cotton in Arkansas; sorghum in Kansas; and soybeans in Arkansas, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, New York, North Dakota, Ohio, South Dakota, and Wisconsin.

When planting delays occur NASS has established procedures and processes in place to re-contact respondents. In addition to the updated survey information, NASS considered Farm Service Agency (FSA) certified acreage information as well as satellite-based indications of acreage to update planted and harvested acreage estimates for this report.

NASS estimates of planted area are always larger than the certified acres reported by FSA because of definitional differences and the fact that some producers do not participate in USDA programs and therefore do not report their acreage to FSA. It is also important to note that data are reported to FSA over an extended period of time, with varying due dates across the country, and is historically incomplete in early August. NASS has carefully analyzed these data for many years and has determined they normally don't become nearly complete until September for cotton and October for corn, soybeans, and sorghum. A detailed description of how NASS incorporates the FSA certified acreage information into the estimating process can be found at www.nass.usda.gov/Education_and_Outreach/Understanding_Statistics/FSA_Acreage.pdf.

Based on all of the data sources described above, planted and harvested area estimates for corn, soybeans, cotton, and sorghum were updated and included in this report. All States in the estimating program for these crops were subject to review and updating.

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